UFC 195 fight card: What's at stake?

There is limited sense in trying to view UFC 195 in an interpretative way. Trying to predict the future or derive too much meaning from a single event is a recipe for misleading claims, unsubstantiated ideas or worse. Still, one can't entirely ignore what this event means either. Perhaps one way to view it is in contrast to the UFC's January push in 2015. Coming off of a massive down year, the UFC made January 2015 a celebration or, at least, a demonstration of their greatness. It was their moment to reengage casual fans, make fight history, pull revenue and create an atmosphere or relevance as much as revelry.

The UFC's 2016 January push is by no means forgettable. The organization is staging three events on three different platforms, two of them free, two of them featuring title fights. There is also the possibility that one of them, Dominick Cruz vs. T.J. Dillashaw, could make history on its own. Yet, while the UFC's calendar isn't worthy of derision, it isn't what last year's was and it's not because it doesn't have to be. The UFC views itself as a quest for bigger and better conquests, but this time around, it's coming off of a record-breaking 2015 campaign. Frankly, they have less to prove. They don't have to go to extreme measures to remind the fan base or sports establishment of their capabilities. After a 12-month run of doing that, putting the UFC machine in cruise control for a bit seems entirely appropriate.

Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit

At stake: the welterweight crown and their own corner of history. Depending on who you ask, there is a welterweight king out there, it just may not be Lawler. Some, if not most, view his holding of the title as proof he's the best welterweight. Others, however, believe Georges St-Pierre could reclaim what was his. Some might offer a rejuvenated Johnny Hendricks can defeat Lawler on a good day. Others say while Rory MacDonald has fallen short twice, he's narrowed the gap substantially. Given more time, he's capable of holding the belt as well. The point is this: virtually everyone acknowledges Lawler's achievements, but he hasn't galvanized opinion that he is head and shoulders above his contemporaries. Defeating Condit in and of itself won't change that, but the longer he can maintain a run of title defenses, the better the argument for his uniqueness.

Condit is trying to remind everyone of the WEC champion version of himself. By that, we are not referring to a different skill set or his ability to defeat credentialed if lesser competition. Rather, Condit has limitations, but is capable of extraordinary violence in specific, narrow windows against elite opposition. When he's on and with the right kind of style match-up, he can defeat anyone at the weight class. Sustained dominance is not part of his appeal, but occasional peaks and burts of talent are. His goal for Saturday is to remind us that when the iron is hot, he intends to strike.

Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski

At stake: title shot and reputation affirming.  Arlovski's already proved doubters and skeptics wrong (including this writer) and enjoyed a renewed profile. To a certain extent, his transformation into a legitimate, top-level contender is already finished. Truthfully, though, it's unfair to say Arlovski's rebound is complete. There are still lengths to go that could add to this hugely unexpected and remarkable second chapter to his career. Competing for a second title, to say nothing of winning one, would only add to his unusual if entirely welcome resurgence.

Miocic is in a much different predicament. He's looking to fulfill destiny and match everyone's high expectations. Where Arlovski is trying to change perspectives to an extent, Miocic is out to affirm them. There is a belief among Miocic's supporters that he stands as good a chance as any to wear UFC gold. Getting through a resurgent Arlovski is critical to actualizing that, especially in light of his setback against Junior dos Santos. What Miocic needs to prove is the JDS loss wasn't proof that he hovers outside of championship contender status. Bulldozing Arlovski would help prove he smashes right through it.

Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin

At stake: polishing bona fides and moving into ranked space. I'm not going to waste time railing against the UFC's ranking system or panel. Suffice to say, the entire operation isn't reliable in terms of establishing any kind of coherent hierarchy. That said, there remains value for fighters outside of the ranked world to shove their way into it. Tumenov and Larkin, despite being outrageously talented, are not ranked in the UFC's welterweight. In fairness, there are some good reasons for that, namely, they haven't collected enough scalps necessarily to warrant high placement. After tonight, however, that should change for one of them.

The other matter to note here is the contrasting striking styles between the two. Both are reputationally strikers and deservedly so, but employ huge different tools to bring their offense to life. Both also have the type of striking talent to conceivably give anyone in the division fits. Conceivably, however, is the key word. The winner here doesn't merely move up, but could signal their overall game is better suited for tackling the rest of the division's challenges.

Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega, Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims

At stake: old fashioned rank climbing. The two fights listed here are in different divisions. The fighters occupy all manner of different spaces. Ortega is a hot prospect on the rise, Trujillo and Brandao are capable if flawed veterans and Sims is on a journey altogether different. In this sense, there isn't a unifying theme to their battles. What is true, though, is that it's too tough to read into the specifics of this situation without magnifying matters that aren't important and missing ones that are. Suffice to say, these two fights are important, but otherwise unremarkable.